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According to The Intercept, some content even uses expressions like “leaving the CLT [Brazilian labour law]” and “your dream income” to promote this type of activity. There are also screenshots of alleged user earnings and posts that present gambling as a kind of investment.
These professional content creators on Instagram aren’t limited to sports betting. There are niches of creators focused on casino games, like the controversial Fortune Tiger, with a communication strategy similar to that of sports betting.
Another influencer (fictitious name, João) shares live game-style videos on his stories, simulating high-paying gaming sessions. In them, he points out which operator or game “is paying the most”, while in another piece of content, he posts a screenshot of his exclusive Telegram group, where he shares “highest payout” times for betting on specific games.
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In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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“They’re different costumes on gambling,” he said. “Some have high heels and a tiara and others have on miniskirts or a bikini.”
Asked by Hall on how Texas should proceed moving forward, York advised that the state should seek an order that would require prediction markets to geofence their platforms from operating statewide. York also prefers the pursuit of litigation against prediction markets in state court, rather than the federal circuit, where state attorney generals have been less successful.
“Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas,” York said. “I hope you prove them wrong.”