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More recently, Polymarket has paid top dollar for prominent athletes and celebrities to promote its prediction market. The company’s paid partners include LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, and Craig Robinson.
The Polymarket water tower can be seen from I-94, but isn’t overly prominent, as the interstate passes beneath three bridges—Concord Avenue, train tracks, and a service road—near the Mount Elliott exit.
But the advertisement is still garnering plenty of attention online and in the news, with the controversy surrounding the Polymarket branding a major topic of discussion in prediction market and gaming circles.
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But as mentioned earlier, this is not the first time Grant has been caught in a similar legal tangle with Star Casino, which accused the man of using a strategy known as “edge sorting,” which is essentially discovering an imperfection in the make of the cards used in a table game.
By leaning into that imperfection, players may then exploit the knowledge and tip the house edge in their favor. Most casinos and courts around the world consider this to be cheating.
However, the judgment in that specific case against Star Casino ruled that Grant was a self-professed advantage player, and that a casino where the staff was competent and the games were operated correctly had nothing to worry about.
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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.