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That is because trading on prediction markets is illegal down under, according to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, the nation’s regulator on financial services. Last month, in perhaps the ASIC’s strongest warnings yet against the asset class, the commission reiterated that prediction markets are not licensed as financial markets to operate in Australia. Through the guidance, the regulator urged consumers to exercise caution before partaking in certain investments on offshore platforms which have not obtained licensing nationwide.

The advisory could be music to the ears of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, whose league has pushed a federal derivatives regulator in the US to enact more rigorous standards to help protect the integrity of professional sports. Ahead of the matchup, Goodell spoke with CNBC from Melbourne.

“We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” he said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.”

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Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.

Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

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Like Betsson, Stake is trying to combine its global scale with a deep understanding of local markets in LatAm. It now holds local LatAm licences in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Mexico, as well as the Province of Buenos Aires in Argentina.

Having received its licence in Peru in August 2024, Escobar argues Stake’s global scale delivers an advantage only when it is paired with a deep understanding of the Peruvian market and its players.

“We benefit from world-class technology, a market-leading product and one of the strongest brands in the industry, but success isn’t achieved simply by bringing a global platform into a new market,” Escobar says. “We’ve invested heavily in understanding Peruvian players, building local partnerships, working with creators, supporting football and tailoring our marketing and customer experience to local preferences.